Tony Abbott’s Liberal Party is in an election winning position, with Newspoll showing the Liberal/National Coalition leading Labor 51 to 49 percent on a two party preferred basis.
This is the first time since 2006 that Labor has lost the lead in the poll, with support for Kevin Rudd slipping dramatically after he dropped support for the ETS until the end of 2012.
Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating took a heavy beating, down 11 points to 39 percent, with support as preferred prime minister down 6 points to 50 percent.
Tony Abbott’s support as preferred prime minister only rose three points to 32 percent, suggesting that the rush of support away from Kevin Rudd is from the left upset over Rudd’s change in ETS policy, rather than a flight of voter intention towards Tony Abbott.
Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannassey told the ABC the result could be a rogue poll, reflecting voter backlash at the ETS.
“It’s possible that we have a rogue poll, although, funnily enough, while there’s a chance of one in 20 that we get one over a certain percentage, the chance that we get one of such magnitude declines as well.
“In October 2009, the last time we talked down climate change or confidence in the Government was fading on climate change, we saw a sharp fall in the primary vote for the Government. Here it is again.
“What you look at is the first preferences, and it is very clear that Labor has taken quite a caning and the Coalition hasn’t gained everything it can from that. I think that probably is the story of this poll,” he said.
In another poll conducted by Essential Research, Labor’s still leads the Coalition in two party preferred numbers, but has fallen from a lead of 59/41 six months ago to 53/47 this week.
